Refer to PSP 11th Perihelion Campaign page.
2022-02-18 (CSV, PDF table of coordinates)
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).
Figure 3.
The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 11th Perihelion modeling team.
Prediction update 2022/2/22
This is the first solar footpoint prediction for the 11th Encounter of PSP with perihelion on Feb 25th 2022. Predictions will be issued today (2/18) and from Monday (2/21) through Monday (2/28) targeting 11am PT each day.
Current model consensus shows PSP will be connected behind the east limb now until Thursday (2/24) at 10pm UTC. Although there are no on-disk sources for this time interval, PSP will be moving very slowly with respect to the Sun and so any prominences or active regions that become visible over the limb in this time may be of interest for observers.
Once east limb passage occurs, PSP's footpoints will be moving very quickly with respect to the solar disk, traversing it entirely in just 3 days reaching the west limb around 8pm UTC Sunday (2/27). Given this rapid motion, footpoints are tabulated in the attached CSV files at a one hour cadence.
Today's model results predict the following for the on-disk phase:
02/24 10pm UTC through 02/25 5am UTC : PSP connects to a mid-latitude negative polarity coronal hole that is currently behind the limb and will just have rotated on disk.
02/25 5am-8am UTC PSP will cross the HCS. The actual crossing will be very rapid and this 3 hour window is just mapping uncertainty.
02/25 8am UTC - 02/26 8am UTC - Models predict mid-latitude positive polarity footpoints in the active region bands. These locations had solar activity on the last rotation but are currently on the far-side and may differ once they rotate on disk.
02/26 8am UTC - 02/27 8pm UTC - Positive polarity equatorial coronal hole connectivity. This region is currently emerging on disk and will be updated on Monday. Connection is predicted to follow this location off the West limb by UTC evening time on Sunday 02/27
On Disk Active Regions (MAG4): While there are four active regions, they are all currently at a low threat level for producing CMEs or flares. Observers are currently advised to focus on the magnetic footpoint locations described above.
2022-02-21 (CSV, PDF table of coordinates)
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).
Figure 3.
The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 11th Perihelion modeling team.
Prediction update 2022/2/21
Predictions will be issued daily starting from today (2/21) through Monday (2/28) targeting 11am PT each day.
Currently, PSP is predicted to be connected just behind the East limb until Thursday (2/24). Compared to Friday's prediction, limb passage has trended to occuring a few hours earlier (2/24 6pm UTC) as a low latitude negative polarity coronal hole rotates on disk.
Once east limb passage occurs, PSP's footpoints will be moving very quickly with respect to the solar disk, traversing it entirely in just 3 days reaching the west limb around 8pm UTC Sunday (2/27).
Today's model results predict the following for the on-disk phase :
02/24 6pm UTC through 02/25 5am UTC : PSP connects to a mid-latitude negative polarity coronal hole that is currently behind the limb and will just have rotated on disk. As this predicted coronal hole is still obscured, it may not be confirmed to have survived the last rotation until 02/24.
02/25 5am-8am UTC PSP will cross the HCS according to ADAPT-GONG maps. The actual crossing will be very rapid and this 3 hour window is just mapping uncertainty. According to today's ADAPT-HMI maps this HCS crossing occurs later (11pm UTC 2/25), but the transition from negative latitudes to positive latitudes still occurs at the same time.
02/25 8am UTC - 02/26 8am UTC - Models predict mid-latitude positive polarity footpoints in the active region bands. These locations are just visible from Earth near the east limb where an active region and narrow tenuous coronal holes are coming into view. These locations will continue to be better observed in the coming days. According to today's ADAPT-HMI map a HCS crossing may occur at 11pm UTC in this interval, and the polarity of source regions switch from negative to positive, although the locations of the sources remains unchanged for the observer.
02/26 8am UTC - 02/27 8pm UTC - Positive polarity equatorial coronal hole connectivity. Models continue to point to equatorial connectivity. EUV observations suggest, similar to the above bullet, narrow tenuous coronal holes. Connection is predicted to track along these coronal holes near the equator and off the West limb by ETC evening time on Sunday 02/27.
On Disk Active Regions (MAG4): There are currently five active regions on the solar disk, but all of them have low threat levels of producing large flares or CMEs. Observers are currently advised to focus on the magnetic footpoint locations described above.
2022-02-22 (CSV, PDF table of coordinates)
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).
Figure 3.
The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 11th Perihelion modeling team.
Prediction update 2022/2/22
Predictions continue today (2/22) through Monday (2/28) targeting 11am PT each day.
Currently, PSP is predicted to be connected just behind the East limb until Thursday (2/24). Limb passage today is predicted for (2/24 9pm UTC) as a low latitude negative polarity coronal hole rotates on disk.
Once east limb passage occurs, PSP's footpoints will be moving very quickly with respect to the solar disk, traversing it entirely in just 3 days reaching the west limb around 8pm UTC Sunday (2/27).
Today's model results predict the following for the on-disk phase :
02/24 9pm UTC through 02/25 4am UTC : PSP connects to a mid-latitude negative polarity coronal hole that is currently behind the limb and will just have rotated on disk. As this predicted coronal hole is still obscured, it may not be confirmed to have survived the last rotation until 02/24.
02/25 4am-8am UTC PSP will cross the HCS. The actual crossing will be very rapid and this 3 hour window is just mapping uncertainty. The ADAPT-GONG mappings predict this to occur earlier in this window and ADAPT-HMI predict it to occur later.
02/25 8am UTC - 02/26 Midnight UTC - Footpoints connect to a prominent active region complex (AR6827 and AR6830) and large coronal hole just below and westward of it. This complex is around 12 deg N of the equator and today is visible towards the East limb.
02/26 Midnight UTC - 02/27 8pm UTC - Footpoints track along the large coronal hole mentioned above and follow a network of tenuous coronal holes across the disk, reaching the west limb around Sunday 02/27 2pm UTC.
On Disk Active Regions (MAG4): While there are currently five active regions, none are expected to produce a large flare or CME according to MAG4. Observers are currently advised to focus on the magnetic footpoint locations described above, which suggest connectivity near AR6827 and AR6830 on Friday 2/25 .
2022-02-23 (CSV, PDF table of coordinates)
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).
Figure 3.
The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 11th Perihelion modeling team.
Prediction update 2022/2/23
Predictions continue today (2/23) through Monday (2/28) targeting 11am PT each day.
PSP remains connected just behind the East limb until tomorrow Thursday (2/24). Limb passage today is predicted for (2/24 4-6pm UTC) as a low latitude negative polarity coronal hole rotates on disk.
Once east limb passage occurs, PSP's footpoints will be moving very quickly with respect to the solar disk, traversing it entirely in just 3 days reaching the west limb around 8pm UTC Sunday (2/27). The main change in today's prediction is a westward shift in the AGONG heliospheric current sheet (to become more consistent with AHMI), this means the prediction of the HCS crossing occurs later and there is footpoint motion prior to this occuring.
Today's model results predict the following for the on-disk phase :
02/24 4pm UTC through 02/25 8am UTC : PSP connects to a mid-latitude negative polarity coronal hole that is currently behind the limb and will just have rotated on disk around 19deg south. The footpoints track equatorward over time in this time-interval. As this predicted coronal hole is still obscured, it is still not confirmed to have survived the last rotation or have this equatorward extent, this will ideally be confirmed in tomorrow's prediction.
02/25 8am - 12pm UTC PSP will cross the HCS. The actual crossing will be very rapid and this 3 hour window is just mapping uncertainty. Today ADAPT-GONG and ADAPT-HMI maps predict consistent HCS crossing times.
02/25 12pm UTC - 02/26 Midnight UTC - Footpoints connect either to the southwest extent of the prominent active region complex (AR6827 and AR6830) or large coronal hole just below and westward of it. This is around 12 deg N of the equator and today is visible towards the East limb.
02/26 Midnight UTC - 02/27 8pm UTC - Footpoints track along the large coronal hole mentioned above and follow a network of tenuous coronal holes across the disk, reaching the west limb around Sunday 02/27 2pm UTC. This coronal hole network is prominently visible in today's AIA 193A images near disk center.
On Disk Active Regions (MAG4): While there are currently five active regions, none are expected to produce a large flare or CME according to MAG4. Observers are currently advised to focus on the magnetic footpoint locations described above, which suggest connectivity near AR6827 and AR6830 on Friday 2/25 .
2022-02-24 (CSV, PDF table of coordinates)
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).
Figure 3.
The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 11th Perihelion modeling team.
Prediction update 2022/2/24
Predictions continue today (2/24) through Monday (2/28) targeting 11am PT each day.
At the time of issuing this prediction, PSP's source has predicted to move on disk at the east limb, although observational evidence in AIA 193 for a persistent coronal hole at that location remains unclear.
PSP's footpoints will start to move very quickly with respect to the solar disk, traversing it entirely in just 3 days reaching the west limb around 8pm UTC Sunday (2/27).
Today's model results predict the following for the on-disk phase :
Now through 02/25 8am UTC : PSP connects to a mid-latitude negative polarity coronal hole that is meant to have just rotated on disk. The footpoints track upwards over time and connect to magnetic concentrations in AR6827 / AR6830. At the time of issuing, the coronal hole is not clearly observed in SDO/AIA 193, and remains the least certain part of this prediction.
02/25 8am - 12pm UTC PSP will cross the HCS. The actual crossing will be very rapid and this interval is just mapping uncertainty. ADAPT-GONG and ADAPT-HMI maps predict consistent HCS crossing times.
02/25 12pm UTC - 02/26 Midnight UTC - Footpoints connect either to the southwest extent of the prominent active region complex (AR6827 and AR6830) around 25 deg N or large coronal hole just below and westward of it. For this time, footpoints track fairly slowly westwards.
02/26 Midnight UTC - 02/27 8pm UTC - Footpoints track along the large coronal hole mentioned above quickly and follow a network of tenuous coronal holes across the disk, reaching the west limb around Sunday 02/27 2pm UTC. This coronal hole network is prominently visible in today's AIA 193A images near disk center.
On Disk Active Regions (MAG4): Solar activity on disk appears to be on the decline. We now have three active regions on the solar disk, but they all have a very low probability of resulting in a large flare or CME according to MAG4.
2022-02-25 (CSV, PDF table of coordinates)
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).
Figure 3.
The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 11th Perihelion modeling team.
Prediction update 2022/2/25
Predictions continue today (2/25) through Sunday (2/27) targeting 11am PT each day. Today is perihelion day!
PSP's footpoints are starting to move very quickly with respect to the solar disk, traversing it entirely in just 3 days reaching the west limb around 8pm UTC Sunday (2/27). A large equatorial coronal hole is the major predicted source for the rest of the on disk phase. An extended high speed stream is a strong possibility.
At the time of issuing this prediction, PSP has crossed the HCS and is tracking rapidly across the disk along a large network of equatorial coronal holes. This coronal hole network is prominently visible in today's AIA 193A images near disk center. The coronal hole is complex and has substructure. The mapping location will change on an hourly basis, first tracking southwards in latitude until 4am UT 2/26, then northwards until 12pm UT 2/26, then southwards until 8pm UT 2/26 and finally northwards again as it goes off disk around 10am 2/27. These latter two tracks are not readily observed in AIA but the first two are.
On Disk Active Regions (MAG4): According to the MAG4 predictions, there is a low probability of a large flare or CME occurring today.
2022-02-26 (CSV, PDF table of coordinates)
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).
Figure 3.
The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 11th Perihelion modeling team.
Prediction update 2022/2/26
This prediction shows PSP's footpoints passing over the West limb within 24 hours of this being issued. We will issue one more update tomorrow but expect to predict no more on disk targets at that point.
PSP's footpoints still moving very quickly with respect to the solar disk, West limb passage is expected at 10am UTC tomorrow Sunday 2/27. Since early this morning, PSP is expected to have left the large equatorial coronal hole that was the perihelion source yesterday and connect to more tenuous equatorial coronal holes further west. PSP is predicted to remain in positive magnetic polarity during this whole time.
Prediction targets suggested by the models are equatorial open field near the west limb. An obvious dark region is not clearly observed in AIA 193 but may be obscured by line of sight effects. This general region (see helioprojective plot) is expected to remain the location of interest through limb passage tomorrow.
On Disk Active Regions (MAG4): According to the MAG4 predictions, there is a low probability of a large flare or CME occurring today.
2022-02-27 (CSV, PDF table of coordinates)
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).
Figure 3.
The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 11th Perihelion modeling team.
Prediction update 2022/2/27
This is a final prediction update confirming models predict PSP's footpoints went over the West limb over the course of yesterday near the equator. This concludes the modeling campaign, although observers may wish to target any visible activity over the West limb which may be relevent to PSP over the next few days.
On Disk Active Regions (MAG4): The probability of a CME from the central region of the disk has increased, but is still quite low. Moreover, there's no indication of activity near the magnetic footpoints of the PSP spacecraft. However, given the spacecraft's disappearance behind the west limb, observers may find the active regions a more interesting target.
Time, consensus carrington longitude (deg), latitude (deg), error in longitude, error in latitude, helioprojective position in X and Y (arcseconds), and Cons-Type which describes the method used to generate the consensus. The consensus is generated by forming a distribution of footpoint predictions from all modelers for each 24 hour period, and attempting to fit a Kent distribution . If the fitting fails (Cons-Type = median), the median in longitude and latitude are quoted. If the fitting is successful (Cons-Type = Kent), the quoted errors are formed by drawing random samples from the fitted distribution and computing the standard deviation in longitude and latitude of those samples. If the fitting fails, the quoted errors are the standard deviation in the longitude and latitude from the raw distribution of predictions. The full shape of the distribution is described by black contours in the associated plots on this website.
**Please note the carrington coordinates (lon,lat) are valid from the quoted timestamp (in UTC) until the next timestamp. The helioprojective coordinates quoted (HP-Tx, HP-Ty) are computed from the carrington coordinate at the quoted timestamp (e.g. midnight UTC each day) and so are valid instantaneously at this time but will corotate with the Sun until the next quoted timestamp.
Individual model prediction tables of coordinates may be found in a Public DropBox. Files in the Public DropBox have three-letter identifiers indicating the associated model (see below).
Three-letter designation for Public DropBox: UCB. Kindly provided by Sam Badman. The model is a simple ballistic propagation from PSP down to the source surface assuming slow wind 360km/s, and then tracing this sub-PSP trajectory through a PFSS model to get footpoints at the photosphere. The source surface height here is 2.5Rs. The PFSS model is generated using various ADAPT maps with GONG and HMI as input, and the model is run using the open source pfsspy package. A more detailed explanation of the model and comparison to PSP E1 results are given here.
Three-letter designation for Public DropBox: PSI. Kindly provided by Pete Riley. For these predictions, PSI is using a combination of modeling approaches, including PFSS solutions, empirically-based polytropic MHD solutions, and a more sophisticated approach that includes the effects of waves and turbulence to heat the corona and the WKB approximation for wave pressures to accelerate the solar wind. Additionally, boundary conditions are derived from both HMI and ADAPT synoptic magnetograms. Together, these allow us to generate a rich set of ensemble realizations from which to make our optimal prediction, as well as pool them with other teams’ forecasts to derive a hyper-ensemble prediction.
Three-letter designation for Public DropBox: WSA. Kindly provided by Shaela Jones. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is a combined empirical and physics-based model of the corona and solar wind. The coronal portion of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is comprised of the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) models, where the output of the PFSS model serves as input to the SCS model. The solar wind portion of WSA consists of a simple 1-D kinematic propagation code that takes stream interactions into account in an ad-hoc fashion. It provides predictions of the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field IMF polarity at any specified point in the inner heliosphere. The WSA model can use global maps of the photospheric magnetic flux measurements from a number of sources as its inner boundary condition; here we are using an ensemble of maps from the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model, based on input GONG magnetograms.
UAH predictions come from the University of Alabama, Huntsville Multiscale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS, Pogorelov et al. (2014); Pogorelov (2023); Singh et al. (2022)), which can solve the Reynolds-averaged ideal MHD equations for the mixture of thermal and nonthermal solar wind ions coupled with the kinetic Boltzmann equation describing the transport of neutral atoms. An adaptive mesh refinement technique can be employed for efficient high-resolution calculations. The MS-FLUKSS heliospheric MHD model is coupled with the WSA model (Kim et al., 2020), which uses both ADAPT-GONG and ADAPT-HMI input magnetograms, with the PFSS source surface height and the WSA outer boundary at 2.5 and 10 solar radii, respectively. Hence, field line tracing is performed through the MHD domain down to 10 solar radii instantaneously at approximately 1 hour cadence, where the origin of the field line on the photosphere is already known, as described for WSA.
see Prediction and Verification of Parker Solar Probe Solar Wind Sources at 13.3Rs, Badman et al. (2023)
