PSP 4^th Perihelion Campaign Target Archive

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

TEST CONSENSUS PREDICTION 20200118 Target is tracking the northmost edge of the southern polar coronal hole as it rotates from the East to West limb. Note yellow points in Figures 1 and 2 and information in tables of coordinates do not yet present a real consensus prediction across models but instead reproduces the data from UCB_psp_e4_20200118a_adaptGONG20200118rss2.5.csv.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

CONSENSUS PREDICTION for 2020-01-20: Based on ADAPT-HMI maps (last updated on 2020-01-16) and EUV synoptic maps (updated 2020-01-20), we believe that magnetic field lines connected to the PSP spacecraft switched yesterday (2020-01-19) from being predominately positive to negative (i.e., the spacecraft crossed the heliospheric current sheet). We predict that the spacecraft is, and will remain immersed in plasma emanating from the southern polar coronal hole, between -50 and -60 degrees heliographic latitude during the entire fourth encounter, with some sampling of plasma from an equatorward excursion of the coronal hole at approximately 90 degrees Carrington longitude. Some of the models suggest that there may be some connectivity with an active region, centered at -30 latitude and 120 Carrington longitude. However, these calculations did not incorporate new photospheric magnetic field data, which we believe will show a much more diffused active region. These are extremely preliminary predictions and will be updated daily. In particular, we envisage that the predictions will become more reliable over the next few days when the latest magnetograms are incorporated into the ADAPT maps.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

CONSENSUS PREDICTION 2020-01-21 Based on ADAPT-HMI and ADAPT-GONG synchronic maps, together with the results of four models, the consensus prediction is that PSP will remain immersed in plasma emanating from the southern polar coronal hole, between -50 and -60 degrees heliographic latitude during the entire fourth encounter, with some sampling of plasma from an equatorward excursion of the coronal hole at approximately 90 degrees Carrington longitude. It should be noted, however, that the latest predictions have begun to diverge, with those based on HMI maps suggesting that PSP may be connected to the northern polar coronal hole, for at least the next week (prior to perihelion). This is due to the fact that the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is predicted to be much flatter in models relying on ADAPT-HMI inputs, which in turn, suggests that PSP may be immersed within streamer-belt material for a substantial fraction of the pre-perihelion encounter. While the majority of the predictions favor a southern connection, given the current uncertainty, where possible, it would be advisable to monitor both northern and southern regions (at comparable latitudes), tracking the same changes in longitude.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

CONSENSUS PREDICTION(S) 2020-01-22 Based on ADAPT-HMI and ADAPT-GONG synchronic maps, together with the results of four models, the consensus prediction is that PSP will remain immersed in plasma emanating from the southern polar coronal hole, between -50 and -60 degrees heliographic latitude during the entire fourth encounter, with some sampling of plasma from an equatorward excursion of the coronal hole at approximately 90 degrees Carrington longitude. As noted yesterday, the latest predictions are diverging, with those based on HMI maps suggesting that PSP may be connected to the northern polar coronal hole, for at least the next five days (prior to perihelion). While the majority of the predictions favor a southern connection, given the current uncertainty, where possible, it would be advisable to monitor both northern and southern regions (at comparable latitudes), tracking the same changes in longitude. Note that the CSV file format has been adjusted for today. Columns are date, time, Tx(GONG), Ty(GONG), Tx(HMI), Ty(HMI), lon(GONG), lat(GONG), elon(GONG), lon(HMI), lat(HMI), elon(HMI), and elat(HMI).

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

CONSENSUS PREDICTION(S) 2020-01-23 With more and more eastward magnetic and EUV data coming into view, the model predictions are beginning to change. Based on the most up-to-date ADAPT-GONG synchronic maps, the consensus prediction is that PSP will now be immersed in plasma from the northern coronal hole during perihelion. This is supported by ADAPT-HMI maps (which are delayed by one day), which also suggest sustained connectivity with the northern polar coronal hole. Since the ADAPT-GONG solutions continue to show an equatorward excursion into a coronal hole that is no longer observed, and some of the predictions are still connected to this, we believe that the ADAPT-HMI solutions offer a more reliable solution at the moment, and we suggest that observers focus their campaigns on the northern regions, at 60-65 degrees heliolatitude, and 60-110 degrees Carrington longitude. On the other hand, given this uncertainty, where possible, it would be advisable to monitor both northern and southern regions (at comparable latitudes), tracking the same changes in longitude.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

PREDICTION STATEMENT 2020-01-24 With updated data from ADAPT-GONG and HMI, the model predictions are diverging even more. While we previously suggested that PSP would be immersed in plasma from the northern coronal hole during perihelion, with a smaller probability of connecting with the southern polar regions, we now weight both likelihoods equally. This is supported by a systematic shift in the location of the current sheet with respect to PSP's position, over the last three days of modeling. Thus, we suggest that observers focus their campaigns on both the northern and southern regions, at 60-65 degrees helio-latitude, and 60-110 degrees Carrington longitude. Additionally, a small subset of the models predicts that some of the flow may come from a northern mid-latitude coronal hole located at approximately 35 degrees helio-latitude and 75 degrees Carrington longitude.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

PREDICTION STATEMENT 2020-01-25 Based on models driven from updated ADAPT-GONG (today) and ADAPT-HMI (yesterday), the predictions are trending toward a southern polar coronal hole connection during perihelion (although we cannot rule out a northern connection based on GONG results). We recommend that observers focus their campaigns primarily on southern regions, at 60-65 degrees helio-latitude, and 60-110 degrees Carrington longitude, but if possible also include complimentary observations in the north. A small subset of the models predict that some of the flow may come from a southern coronal hole extension located at approximately -20 degrees helio-latitude and 70 degrees Carrington longitude. Finally, we note that beginning today, PSP is reaching quasi-corotation with the Sun and should (in an ideal sense) remain connected to the same source region for the next day or two. Following this, PSP’s magnetic foot-point will accelerate westward over the following week, likely reaching the west limb around 31 January.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

PREDICTION STATEMENT 2020-01-26 Today’s consensus prediction is based on models driven from updated ADAPT-GONG (today) and ADAPT-HMI (two days ago), as well as updated AIA and EUVI synoptic maps (today). Due to changes observed in the GONG maps, our individual predictions are trending towards a northern polar coronal hole connection during perihelion (60-65 degrees helio-latitude, and 60-110 degrees Carrington longitude); however, this may change when ADAPT-HMI maps become available tomorrow. Additionally, predictions using a lower source surface radius (< 2.0 Rs) suggest a connection to an equatorial coronal hole, associated with a newly emerged active region just above the equator. Given PSP’s current quasi-corotation, this may be a source of solar wind over the next few days. Following this period of quasi-coronation, PSP’s magnetic foot-point will accelerate westward over the following week, skirting either the northern (GONG-based prediction) or southern (HMI-based prediction) polar coronal holes, and reaching the west limb around 31 January.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

TEST CONSENSUS PREDICTION 20200127 Today’s consensus prediction is based on models driven from updated ADAPT-GONG (today) and ADAPT-HMI (today), as well as updated AIA and EUVI synoptic maps (today). PSP is currently executing the “loop” portion of its perihelion trajectory, traveling to earlier Carrington longitudes and lower heliographic latitudes over the next few days. Because of this, it has just dipped below the location of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), as determined by GONG-based predictions, and it is well-below the HCS as determined by HMI-driven models. Thus, we predict that PSP will sample plasma from southern polar coronal hole regions for at least the next few days. Later, as it returns to slightly higher heliographic latitudes it will again connect to the northern polar coronal hole and the foot-points will drift westward across the visible disk; however, the timing of the crossing of the HCS cannot yet be well established. Ground-based observations should focus on 60-65 degrees helio-latitude, and 60-110 degrees Carrington longitude). We anticipate that PSP’s magnetic connection to the solar surface will reach the west limb around 31 January 2020.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

TEST CONSENSUS PREDICTION 20200128 Essentially all models have converged on the same prediction today: PSP is - and will likely remain for the remainder of the encounter - connected to the southern polar coronal hole. Ground-based observations should focus on 60-65 degrees South helio-latitude and 60-110 degrees Carrington longitude. There is a small probability that PSP will be connected to an equatorward excursion of the southern polar coronal hole just before the west limb is reached. We continue to project that PSP’s magnetic connection to the solar surface will reach the west limb around 31 January 2020.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

CONSENSUS PREDICTION 20200129: Today marks Parker Solar Probe’s (PSP) fourth Perihelion pass (may P-Fourth be with you!). Because of PSP’s close proximity to the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), the model predictions have once again diverged. Some models, driven by HMI inputs favour a connection with the southern polar coronal hole, while others, primarily driven by GONG, suggest a connection to the northern polar coronal hole, and, in particular, an extension toward the active region just above the equator at ~ 80 Deg. Carrington longitude. Thus we recommend that observers target both the northern (40 Deg. Carr. lat.) and southern (-60 Deg. Carr. lat.) polar regions. We project that PSP’s magnetic connection to the solar surface will reach the west limb around 01 February 2020.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

CONSENSUS PREDICTION 20200130: Today’s prediction is based on updated ADAPT-GONG maps. All models have converged, predicting a southern polar coronal hole connection to Parker Solar Probe (PSP). We recommend that observers target the southern (-60 Deg. Carr. lat., 90-100 Carr. Long.) polar regions. However, given the close proximity of the spacecraft to the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), small uncertainties could lead to different connections. We project that PSP’s magnetic connection to the solar surface will reach the west limb around 01 February 2020.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

CONSENSUS PREDICTION 20200131: Today’s prediction is based on updated ADAPT-GONG and HMI maps. Most models predict a southern polar coronal hole connection to Parker Solar Probe (PSP) today, although a small subset suggest some connectivity with a lower-latitude coronal hole extension. We recommend that observers target the southern (-60 Deg. Carr. lat., 90-100 Carr. Long., i.e., the western limb) polar regions. During limb passage, the model predictions diverge, with GONG-driven results suggesting a crossing of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and thus a recommendation to monitor the northern polar regions, while HMI-driven results suggest that the target would be a lower-latitude coronal hole extension. We anticipate that limb passage will occur either today or tomorrow. Based on this, our last scheduled updated prediction for PSP’s fourth encounter will be on Sunday 2nd February. Note, however, that PSP’s magnetic connectivity through the end of the encounter will be provided in the final CSV file on Sunday (it just won’t be updated each day). If you would like to receive updated predictions all the way through the remainder of the encounter, please let us know (pete@predsci.com, samuel_badman@berkeley.edu).

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

CONSENSUS PREDICTION 20200201: Today’s prediction is based on updated ADAPT-GONG and HMI maps. The models predict a southern polar coronal hole connection to Parker Solar Probe (PSP) throughout the remainder of the encounter, although a small subset suggests some connectivity with a lower-latitude coronal hole extension. We recommend that observers target the southern (-60 Deg. Carr. lat., 90-100 Carr. Long., i.e., the western limb) polar regions. As noted yesterday, our last scheduled updated prediction for PSP’s fourth encounter will be tomorrow, 02 February. If you would like to receive updated predictions all the way through the remainder of the encounter, please let us know (pete@predsci.com, samuel_badman@berkeley.edu).

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figures above show one footpoint per day plotted on the solar disk and in Carrington coordinates (click on figure to zoom and see caption).

The predicted footpoints were kindly provided by the PSP 4th Perihelion modeling team.

CONSENSUS PREDICTION 20200202: Our final prediction for Encounter 4 is based on updated ADAPT-GONG maps. The models continue to predict a southern polar coronal hole connection to Parker Solar Probe (PSP) through February 10. However, PSP’s magnetic connection to the Sun likely crossed the limb today, thus, there are probably no more footprints visible. On the other hand, the last helioprojective location of the footpoints was an extension of the southern polar coronal hole at around 790'' x -470’’, thus, observers could target this location today in case the wind is very fast. This is the last scheduled daily updated prediction for Encounter 4.